Oral Presentation Royal Australian Chemical Institute National Congress 2026

A thermal calcification cause for seasonal oscillations in the increasing Keeling Curve on Mauna Loa and near Cape Grim: Reversing causes of environmental warming from their effects (136802)

Ivan R Kennedy 1 , John W Runcie 2 , Angus N Crossan 3 , Jennifer Marohasy 4 , Raymond W Ritchie 5
  1. School of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
  2. Aquation Pty Ltd, Woy Woy, NSW 2257, Australia
  3. c/- University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
  4. ClimateLab, Noosa, Qld , Australia
  5. Prince of Songkla University, Phuket, Thailand

Why do atmospheric carbon dioxide levels rise and fall seasonally measured on Mauna Loa? This study explores the thermal calcification (TC) hypothesis, suggesting that seasonal temperature shifts in surface seawater cause acid pH-driven CO₂ emissions triggered by calcification. Using oceanographic data, we modeled how temperature affects dissolved inorganic carbon including CO₂, bicarbonate, and carbonate [1]. Our findings suggest that warming waters absorb atmospheric CO2 by promoting calcium carbonate formation, lowering mixing zone seawater pH and boosting CO₂ release to the atmosphere in late autumn and winter, when atmospheric CO₂ becomes highest. The model predicts a net annual CO₂ rise of 2 ppmv, driven by calcification rather than land-based processes. Seasonal pH swings of 0.04 units corroborate this mechanism. Kennanook/Cape Grim seasonal oscillations are less pronounced, possibly a result of nearby seawater having a deeper mixing zone and fewer nutrients for seasonal calcification but still allowing net CO2 annual emissions to the troposphere. The TC hypothesis indicates that continued ocean warming, not only fossil-fuel emissions, contribute to rising atmospheric CO₂ levels [2], calling for deeper investigation into marine carbon dynamics.

  1. Kennedy , Ivan R., Runcie, John, Crossan, Angus N., Ritchie, Raymond J. & Marohasy, Jennifer (2025) A Thermal Acid Calcification Cause for Seasonal Oscillations in the Increasing Keeling Curve. Cornell arXiv preprint https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2505.06253
  2. Kennedy, Ivan R., Runcie, John W., Zhang, S., & Ritchie, Raymond J. (2022) A New Look at Physico-chemical Causes of Changing Climate: Is the Seasonal Variation in Seawater Temperature a Significant Factor in Establishing the Partial Pressure of Carbon Dioxide in the Earth’s Atmosphere. Thermo 2022, 2(4), 401-434,  https://doi.org/10.3390/thermo2040028